How do we know what 'the next big thing' is?

There’s an article on the BBC website about the end of Google Wave, which was, launched to great fanfare, just one year ago.

Wave was a system that combined e-mail, instant messaging, and features that allowed users to collaborate on documents in real time. On paper, this sounds like a great way of encouraging and promoting collaborative working, with users being able to see comments from other users as they typed, and ideas being created, developed and completed by groups of people living far away from each other, truly reinforcing the idea of the “global village”.

How then, could it be, that Google had to wave goodbye (excuse the awful pun) to their dream?

I wonder whether maybe they wanted to do too much, too quickly? Collaborative working is wonderful, and it’s something that companies like ours do on a daily basis, with teams working across Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle, to ensure we get the best out of our resources for our clients. But it doesn’t mean we collaborate on work in real time – too many cooks and all that. I’m also of the opinion that video messaging is something that’s yet to catch on, at least in the UK, although perhaps that’ll all be changed by iPhone 4 and the fairly obvious next release of the iPad, which is sure to contain a webcam.

But here’s the thing. Google was convinced that this would be ‘the next big thing’, and that people would be lining up to use it. More than most, they know their market and their consumer. So, if Google don’t know, then who does? Or do Google know too soon? Jim Cameron spent 10 years plus brow beating everyone in Hollywood about 3D film to relatively small take up (although some bloke called Spielberg and his mate Lucas seem to be fans now, and I seem to remember they hold some sway in tinsel town…) until he released Avatar last year, and now the world seems to be all over 3D like a rash, with cinemas retrofitting their screens like it’s going out of fashion and 3D sport finding its way into local pubs. Could it be that we’ll see the same thing here? In 10 years time, will Google look back and say that Wave simply a pre-cursor to what we’ll have then? Or, will we see it going the same way as Betamax and Cuil and other ‘groundbreaking’ products too numerous to mention – hailed as the next big thing at the time, but yet pretty much sinking without a trace.

Most technology trailblazers – Apple, Pixar, Cameron and all – broadly believe that going for it, even if it means you might fail, is the best solution when it comes to new technology, and Google is no exception to that. Taking a chance on trailblazing technology is a philosophy we also subscribe to – try something new, think differently, and it might just get you results (we have high hopes that _spacehus will do just that).

Now you’ve got to wonder – how well do those companies we place so much stock in know that what they’re doing is actually going to be a commercial success, or are their products just an exercise in cosmic dice rolling? People are fickle folk – sometimes we want bacon, sometimes we want cheese, sometimes we want Steve Jobs, sometimes we want Bill Gates. Maybe the best indicator of the next big thing is as easy as what mood the general public are in.

Image from www.freegamesonnet.com